Technological determinism and new world order

“hand mill gives you society with the feudal lord; the steam mill society with the industrial capitalist; Computers and Artificial intelligence gives you society with Tech Bro”

Tech Billionaires at Trump's inauguration

This article is continuation of thoughts along the lines of previous article. Here i try to apply the concept of historical materialism, a model of base and superstructure to explain the state of America today. The base comprises of technological state of production along with social contract on how the income from production is distributed in society. The superstructure is all the rest of social and political system - the institutions, the law and policies, the government and the culture of society. In Marxian model, the superstructure rests on the base. Although hypothesizing a 'base and superstructure' model is giving an oversimplified narrative of history but it still offers some perspective to the current state of the world.

The old values are being swept away and old systems - political, social, economic and cultural - are getting transformed. And they are transforming for worse, not to anything better. At first, it may appear that there isn't really a transformation. Some may think that what we are facing is merely an aberration or merely a temporary anarchy unleashed by group of fanatics who have taken over US government. People deny that there's any change as they believe that the system may recoil back to its old form very soon precisely because the forces of current shift are so strong that it may generate a great backlash from stakeholders and guardians of old system.

But we may well be in a transformation of which historical materialism and technological determinism offers some clues. There's a reconfiguration of power structures in American oligarchy and that, in part, is producing the change. There are also other factors which i will get into. US system - political and economic - in last several decades was based on four pillars -

1. Liberal democracy - America will be exponent of liberal democracy and will also preach and seek to export it to abroad or even force it on nations that are incompatible to it.

2. Neoliberalism - The economic doctrine of the world (or most of it) would be Washington consensus and America will seek to preach and export it to abroad or even force it on nations through institutions like IMF.

3. US military might - US cannot preach and dictate any values to the world without hard power. So behind the soft power of US was mighty hard power of US military. It forces its values on other parts of the world. Or it can be also said that pretext of exporting values was merely a disguise for imperial policies.

4. Liberal culture - Abreast to economic Neoliberalism & political liberal democracy, there was a liberal culture which, at least on face value, included things like free Speech, civility and political culture of etiquette and decorum, human rights issues, LGBT rights etc. One can say that human rights were just a weaponized concept for exporting democracy. One can also say that many of these things were just a mask on top of imperial policies and plutocracy.

In broader context, all this was referred as 'liberalism' or liberal world order though the term can be seen as loaded with other interpretations. Regardless, what we see today is that American liberalism is being swept aside.

Political system is a battleground of power factions, or more accurately oligarchical factions of country that contend for power in 'civilized' way. The people are just pawns which are manipulated and controlled by political groups for achieving their ends. There are various power factions like - Defense industrial complex, financial institutions & big banks, Big pharma & health sector, Tech industrial complex etc. These factions and their lobbying groups exercise great power over political system and they also shape opinions of electorate to generate favorable outcomes.

US defense industrial complex, for much part of post WW2, has held a strong influence over US politics and even today while it's slightly diminishing, it will maintain a good degree of influence for time to come. The so called too big to fail transnational financial institutions of Wall Street also have exercised a tremendous influence over US government. As defense industrial complex dictates defense & foreign policy, Wall Street dictates much of economic and trade policy. Now, new kid in the block is Technology industrial complex, which even outgoing President Joe Biden has strenuously warned about in his farewell speech. No pulling of punches - Biden equated it as oligarchy and cartel equally dangerous as those of defense industry which Eisenhower warned about in previous century.

What is tech industrial complex? It's a collection of Internet companies, transnational social media corporations, tech venture capitalists, Crypto currency start ups (funny money), Silicon valley billionaires etc which along with semiconductor industry on hardware side are the leading edge of current capitalist engine of the world. This tech industrial complex, in short and convenient terminology, is also referred as Tech Bros because of Patriarchy culture in this area.

One of the features of other traditional oligarchical factions like Defense industrial complex or Big Banks etc was that they required and hence owned news media houses which was necessary to shape public opinion on foreign policy, economic policy and so on. Tech industrial complex has a distinct advantage and an edge in this area, for they control the vastly expanding cyberspace from which they can shape and control public opinion more intrusively with minimal effort. The vast amount of data and information which cyberspace generates is a 'property' of Tech bros and they use it build their Algorithms and models to sufficiently shape public decisions. Whether those decisions are about consumer behavior and spending habits or about political opinions - everything can be optimized and manipulated.

Now when Tech industrial complex has emerged as new power faction influencing political sphere. What are the interests of Tech industrial complex? To begin with - they want self regulation. That means they don't want government to interfere with their functioning and they want to expand unfettered. They want massive subsidies. Many of the areas of Tech industrial complex - like Artificial intelligence - have not reached the stage where they can be mobilized for profit seeking purposes. So to develop tech industrial complex, like AI, further for its eventual commercialization, the Tech Bros needs massive subsidies and government contracts to sustain them in current infancy. Don't be mistaken that after government pour massive subsidies into tech sector, that it will be eventually used for noble public purpose. The tech industrial complex will remain privately owned and operated as per wishes of tech bros. The profits and riches of it will remain with the tech companies.

A rearrangement of Oligarchical power or a more fundamental transformation?

There are two perspectives to the present situation which i above described. First is that what we are seeing is only a rearrangement of power factions where new power faction exercises dominant influence to shape government policy to its interest. That means that much of other facets of society - the economic system, political and cultural dimensions will be preserved more or less. Only that the new oligarchical faction will grasp a bigger piece of economic pie.

But secondly on the other hand, the changes we are seeing may be something more structural. A structural transformation that will deeply impact political, economic, cultural as well as global dimensions. Let's try to apply Marx's concept of historical materialism to this hypothesis.

Let's look present changes in a continuum of present as well as past 2 decades and coming 2 decades from a macro perspective. Let's look at Technology sector, AI and how it will replace employment opportunities, system of capital and governance altogether. Surely, there's plenty of hype around it and plenty of speculators are making a fortune in Tech stocks these days. The stocks of leading tech and semiconductor companies are greatly rising (& of unproductive ones are falling). Tech Bros may well be pricks when in their arrogance they boost that their AIs and algorithms will do wonders for humanity and productivity. Someone like Sam Altman (architect of chatGPT) says that we may need a new social contract to adjust with these great technological changes.

But if Tech sector is really on edge of something so fundamental, it will undoubtedly transform our systems greatly. And we have to view it in longer historical timelines of capitalist systems of say next two coming decades. While the present state of AI technology and automation may be plenty of hype at present but what will it actually deliver in, say, next 20 years? What will be the state of technology in this longer time frame and how will it impact our economic systems? I think, tremendously, if the technology really pans out and there are good reasons that it may well be. And it will also drive the transformation in other spheres like political and cultural. Surely, i can't speculate on what nature of these spheres will be in next 2 decades.

Let's look at changes happening in the world in light of power of tech industrial complex. I get a feeling that many things are getting or will be obsolete. The system of military and defense industry itself is fast changing where Tech industrial complex is greatly encroaching upon the power of traditional aristocrats. How is military warfare fought today? By way of advanced drones and automated systems. No longer do we need to rely on obedient human soldiers to carry out dangerous missions. Ukraine drone battles are just a small glimpse of future conflicts. The drone capabilities are greatly advanced and if a new war breaks out, we may well see a better display of cutting edge drone technology in action. Large parts of traditional military hardware is now based on chips, software and computers which falls in the realm of tech industrial complex.

Keeping aside the actual military battles. The wars are fought asymmetrically outside military battlegrounds. Today, Starlink network of Tech bros own nearly two thirds of all global satellites. A system on which Pentagon relies upon for communications. The cyber warfare, the disruption of infrastructure of enemy states, hacking of critical institutions and paralyzing enemy altogether by sabotaging its economic and essential infrastructure - all this is in realm of cyber warfare. There are no actual soldiers with rifles that are needed for this. There's also the weaponization of global financial systems (SWIFT etc) and sanctions regime which are employed for subduing enemy states. Similarly, the SpaceX enterprise of Elon Musk is strategic asset of Pentagon which has created a new command of Starforce for weaponization of Space.

Political chaos

With Tech industrial complex achieving great power, they will exercise big influence to select favorable politicians. For example, the current VP JD Vance has been groomed for years by Tech billionaire Peter Thiel. But looking at the political elites of today starting with Donald Trump, his cabinet appointments and many minions in state & federal offices. This a clown cart of political cretins who have no competence. There are two ways of looking at this. First is that this clown cart may only be temporary political arrangement that is propped up by Tech bros to advance their agenda.

The policies desired by Tech Bros are so outrageous and disruptive that a traditional Bourgeois politician (a liberal politician) may not accept it (advancing such policies may endanger his political career). Hence its preferable, at least in short term, to install incompetent and compromised idiots who can be made to implement controversial policies. In the long run, probably a more socially acceptable political elites will arrive after initial disruption of Tech bros policies will subside. It won't be surprising that when Democrats regain power in future, they will retain much of Trump's policies (like on reducing the size of government) while making some cosmetic changes to please the electorate.

For the moment, an idiot in high office is preferable who can be used to implement policies that a traditional liberal politician may otherwise unable to pass. For example, the government financial system and all its data is handed over to Tech Bros, huge public contracts are given to Tech Bros with governmental subsidies. The data of US government is being put into AI models on experimental basis to plan austerity, mass firings and budget cuts - all in the name of achieving efficiency. Tech bros see government as a private business and they think much of government functions can be relegated to computers and AI. Also note that present merger of Tech Bros and federal government to consolidate national data in America is similar to that of China where government has created a technocratic surveillance superstate.

Second perspective is much more dire and pessimistic. There may be a permanent decline in political leadership and dissolution of state. The current set of political cretins will be replaced in future with same or worse type of cretins. The politics will continue to degrade. The oligarchs that control the political cretins may conclude that there's no purpose of state institutions and no need for reliance on political elites.

Tech industrial complex has a vision which prescribes dismantling of existing state and its institutions (1, 2).

So the hypothesis is as follows from dynamics of historical materialism. The capitalism has undergone several transformations - from old classical industrial capitalism and self regulated markets (from 19th century until early 20th century) to capitalism regulated by the state (from 1930s to 1970s) to Neoliberalism (from 1980s to 2008). Now we see transformation of Neoliberalism to Technofeudalism (emergence of Technofeudalism can be estimated from early 2010s).

The underlying base of Technofeudalism is the following - digital infrastructure that covers everything from finance to defense to retail to human resources management to all kinds economic and social applications, cyberspace/internet and its full commercialization; online giants like Amazon will be the grand marketplaces of world economy, social media corporations like Facebook & X; headquartered from silicon valley that encompass entire world, AI systems that will mechanize and automate many sectors and jobs in near future (we still don't know to what extent).

There's another hallmark of this new form of capital or 'Cloud Capital' as it's referred to by some experts. This capital is extremely concentrated and monopolized as its owned by handful of gargantuan corporations and they are overwhelmingly centered in America although some new players are emerging from China too. European allies of America have very little skin in this game of Technofeudalism because they don't have the kind of power players to compete in new arena.

Every transformation in base of capitalism produced its new set of changes in political and cultural systems - we can call it changes in superstructure (in Marxian terminology). In Neoliberalism, the political and cultural ecosystem in totality comprised of four general set of values which i mentioned in the beginning. And now a new value system will emerge when Technofeudalism materializes into its full frescoes.

'Vulgar Marxists' since long ago have asserted economic determinism as a central tenet which i believe to be a reductionist approach to philosophy of political economy and an erroneous view of historical materialism. We know there are many complex factors that shape society, although technology and industry thus have important role. However, the technology (cloud capital) today has become so powerful and intrusive that it shapes most parts of social, political and cultural life. Earlier, an industrial bourgeoisie was said to influence politicians and media, and thus able to exercise his control over society.

But Tech industrial complex own a much larger spectrum of social dynamics - finance, commerce, education, consumption, entertainment, politics etc - everything is in the realm of cloud capital - and all is open for meddling and molding as its deemed fit. While economic determinism of vulgar Marxists was a naive historical perspective. This view may hold more traction in current world with cloud capital gaining tremendous power over all facets of live.

New culture of mass psychosis

Among the scariest element of Technofeudalism is subsequent cultural transformation. Here we dive into realm of sociology and social psychology to understand the state of society today. The society today is highly disoriented, misinformed and staggeringly unconscious of objective reality. We live in age of science, technology and reason. We have the technological advancement to share, store and analyze data and information across the world in a split second. Ironically, we are also in times when society is most misinformed, brainwashed and dumbed-down ever in modern history. The technology which made human life better has perhaps more so made it worse in certain areas. The lightning speed of data transfer has become a medium of lightning speed for transfer of disinfo, propaganda and conspiracy theories.

Here i use the term - mass psychosis - from social psychology which Dr Bandy Lee, an American psychiatrist and activist, has used to characterize state of America today. It's known since long that sentiments and emotional drive guides the collective masses in society. But with malignant use of technology, social and mainstream media, internet etc - the spread of 'mental pathology' and 'contagion' of irrational thoughts has greatly amplified. This has put tremendous strain on Democratic process. I would go as far as saying that Democratic process in this age and times appear meaningless.

Today, tech industrial complex has unprecedented control over the political process and elections. Last 10 years have demonstrated that even a complete imbecile and highly incompetent person can win national elections; these are the wonders of tech industrial complex. Malignant use of internet, social media, toxic algorithms and artificial intelligence to predict and manipulate electorate are no secrets today. But, i should point out that we shouldn't succumb to pitfalls of 'classical doctrine of Democracy' in the first place - a concept meticulously debunked by Schumpeter and others. Classical doctrine of Democracy can function only in a very specific environment on which Schumpeter offered certain requisites. An intelligent observer knows that requisites of having a functional democracy have long vanished from America, even much before Donald Trump arrived in politics.

People are now driven in sociopolitical discourse on basis of Kayfabe, reality TV and political entertainment (1, 2, 3). Free from all reason, rationality and objective thinking, the collective masses & social groups make political choices based on irrational sentiments, disinformtion and group psychology. Trump is like a predator wolf who is elected by sheep to be their guardian. Such is the grand failure in times of modern Democratic process.

The tech industrial complex has been a crucial instrument in this dumbing down process of society although mainstream media since many decades has also played important role. None other than Elon Musk and his platform is the exponent of disinformation, and on a scale so formidable (1, 2, 3). Influence of plutocracy on political process was no secret but the plutocrats operated discreetly, trying to stay in the shadows. But that tradition has been broken as oligarchs now take a front seat with political elites in exercising power. Elon Musk's demonstration of power is clearly visible in white house today as he drives much of national policy, earning him a tag of Defacto President.

Even in this age of science and reason, a big segment of our society has also become 'psychotic' in a sense. Many people believe in theories of Anti-vaccines, QAnon, Soros conspiracy, Holocaust denial, Covid denial, election denial, global warming denial etc. People have become skeptical of science itself like movement against modern medicine. A democratic process cannot function in such pathological state. Jan 6 2021 Capital Hill event in America was a grand reflection of 'mass psychosis' of current times.

New culture of mass psychosis and political cretinism (Kakistocracy + Pathocracy) can be synthesized into a general theme. It involves degradation of intelligence and intellect across the board - from political to social arena, from politicians to the masses. There's a staggering intellectual decline in society. This synthesis can be expanded even further by accommodating insanity of plutocrats and oligarchs. It's said that many of these tech bros are pathological liars and scoundrels of highest degree. But there's also a hypothesis that these oligarchs are actually delusional and deranged (1, 2, 3, 4). They live in their isolated reality of tiny circle which only feeds them with self affirming views. So when a billionaire makes an awkward assertion, it's not just that he's a cunning liar, even worse is that he actually believes it (drinking own kool-aid).

End of liberal world order and Global ramifications

The early capitalist transformation began in Europe in around 18th century and spread worldwide. There is some similarity to present economic transformation of Technofeudalism. New transformation emerged from Silicon valley and America although one can also say that another foci of it is in Beijing. The exponents of Technofeudalism are American transnational corporations and US is the hegemonic power in the world which in past has also been an exponent of Neoliberalism worldwide. It's obvious that any transformation in America will ripple across the world.

Signs are already visible on how Technofeudalism is shaping the world order. The tech bros activities are not limited to America but they are flexing their muscles worldwide. A creation of far-right transatlantic alliance is already visible with none other than JD Vance and Elon Musk backing far right political parties in Europe. Elon Musk also is dictating US foreign policy in regards to Russia and other nations. A brand of 'Trump-like' politicians - so called populists - are emerging in other countries as well. There's also a tendency of Trump-Musk regime to gravitate towards autocrats like Orban and Putin. This tendency will also be reflected in new foreign policy of America. Democratic allies like Canada & Mexico will face bullying while dictators may get a red carpet.

There's also remnants of old world order that are being liquidated. For example, USAID was an important element of US to project soft power. However, with the great power of tech industrial complex and outreach of transnational tech companies, US has an apparatus that can exercise far more power than through old instruments like USAID. WTO rules itself are tossed aside in the name of national security as US is employing sanctions regime on China. To preserve its technological supremacy, US is also using hard means to block critical technology access to China. However, China has already reached critical mass in its own Tech industrial complex and is currently only few years behind in this cutting edge technology.

Even the transatlantic alliance is in serious crisis as Trump-Musk regime is throwing Ukraine under the bus. Though new Ukraine policy of US may be appear foolish, some right wing pundits claim they wanna build alliance with Russia to counter China. Right wing pundits claim that China is the nemesis and US Ukraine policy of last few years has pushed Russia closer to China. US now doesn't appear to care about goodwill with allies as right wing thinkers believe that Europe, despite everything, will always remain a client of America. This is probably because US has all the hard power (military apparatus) as well as supreme power of Tech industrial complex. Note that Europe doesn't have power of tech industrial complex and will always lean onto America.

US foreign policy in previous decades was significantly influenced by Defense industrial complex, and a tentacle of defense industrial complex and wall street also occupied State department - or so called 'Deep state'. This 'Pentagon-defense industrial complex-Deep state' faction held significant power over US policy. However, in a remarkable irony, the aristocrats of this once powerful faction are now suddenly stripped of power and prestige. It is evident from the fact by observing how easily Trump regime trampled upon aristocrats like General Mark Milley and former CIA boss John Brennan - once esteemed members of Pentagon and intelligence.

Similar purges are going on in military, CIA and FBI, and the so called 'deep state' faction has now become impotent. Or more accurately, the tech industrial complex has replaced Pentagon and 'deep state' in exercising dominant power over government. Similarly, the once powerful Cheney family, Neocons like John Bolton and others are kicked out of Republican party and many traditional Republicans who were anti-Trump have embraced MAGA movement. All these are signs of rearrangement of power factions in America. The Republican party and political discourse overall has shifted to the far right and there's very little that remains of the political 'center'. It should be recalled that Silicon Valley is like a Frankenstein monster which was originally supported by liberals and Democrats. Many Tech Bros used to finance Democratic politicians. However, once the Frankenstein monster became large enough, it gobbled the American state by conspiring with Trump to do an autogolpe.

The defense industrial complex and 'Deep state' faction held significant power over US government. The mentality of this power faction was mainly twofold. First was obviously the profit motive of defense corporations. Second was Cold war mentality of the world and maintaining hegemonic presence. Even after the end of cold war in 1991, the mentality did not change and instead metastasized into neocon foreign policy which was reflected in long wars in middle east. The oligarchs of Tech industrial complex do not share the cold war mentality or ideology of defense industrial complex. Tech bros are businessmen (malignant to be sure) who see scope of expansion of their business empire in ways which doesn't require US war machine in a conventional way.

It should be noted that Trump regime is not the sole factor of new global realignment although it's now the main exponent. Even before Trump, the Neoliberal world order was stagnating and facing contradictions. The Neoliberal order was based on US hegemony and as long as it benefited US, they preached it to the world. But contradictions started to emerge when nations like China became competitive in global economy. The laissez-faire Neoliberal doctrine had to be side stepped to make way for Industrial policy and tariffs in name of 'safeguarding national interests'.

Laissez-faire aspect of Neoliberalism was riddled with more contradictions due to socialization of losses and privatization of profits of private corporations as witnessed during 2008 great recession. Western governments and central banks poured trillions of bailouts to prop up financial institutions. After breakout of Ukraine war, the world started to get divided into trading-blocs, another contradiction to globalization and free movement of capital. On one side is west (US, Europe and their allies) and on other side is 'Illiberal' world order. US imposed far reaching sanctions regime and trade restrictions against countries that trade with Russia even if they do not diplomatically or militarily support Russia.

Ironically, the doctrine of Democracy which was integral part of US based world order and which US preached to the world, itself became a cause of its demise. Donald Trump won power through Democratic process and elections - not once but twice. The first victory of Donald Trump was dismissed as an aberration of Democracy but signs were already in the air of a more fundamental change in America. The second victory of Donald Trump shooked many western intellectuals and thinkers as if their hair were set on fire. The failure of Democratic system and subsequent dangers dejected many intellectuals. But any intellectual who is aware of fallacy of classical doctrine of democracy is not surprised.

While intellectuals are coming to realization that liberal world order is at its end, it must be noted that demise of a dysfunctional system doesn't mean that a better one will emerge. By all indications, the world is sleepwalking into a more dangerous, dysfunctional and chaotic period. Some intellectuals even equate the coming times as a new dark age.

Musical coda - Dario Marianelli, Vikingur Olafsson - We Shall Fight (Darkest Hour Credits)

Suggested readings

Technofeudalism by Yanis Varoufakis

Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter

The Psychology of Trump Contagion by Dr Bandy Lee

Profile of a Nation by Dr Bandy Lee

On History by Eric Hobsbawm