21st century - An age of Reaction and realignment?

What will be the bottom line of this century?

Referring to Hobsbawm’s terminology, the 20th century was ‘age of the extremes’. The world created and destroyed too much of everything - the conflicts, the political ideologies, the economic systems and social order. The world had marvelous technological and material progress while the economic disparity in society surged. A country tried to organize on socialist utopia (Lenin’s revolution in Russia) while the other (western world order) put forward a completely different organization (capitalism). While Lenin’s revolution was later betrayed of its own principles, the capitalist vision globalized inequalities to the extreme.

The world built tremendously from scientific wonders as well as social advancement - the cities, the urbanization, the electrification, modern medicine, automobiles, Nuclear energy (unlocking mysteries of atom), civil rights, democracy, progressive national & international institutions etc. The world also destroyed a lot - two world wars, countless bilateral conflicts, civil wars, genocides, structural violence, extreme inequalities, global warming, environmental disasters etc. The world got divided between North and global south, first world and third world, communism and capitalism, liberal and illiberal states. The world also came to live on a hair trigger of total nuclear annihilation.

We are in early phase of 21st century and we don’t know where the world will finally settle in year 2100. We will be long gone by that time and future generations will have the task to put a bottom line on 21st century. History is complex, unpredictable with too many unknown unknowns and it’s very naive to put a bottom line on future. But some current trends (which are greatly troubling) in our world motivates me to naively make some speculations. Will 21st century be an age of reaction and realignment?

What is reaction? Reaction is a force that wants to roll back societal progress (social, political, scientific) and go back to previous state. The political and social values are earned through long struggle (although some not fully realized) - civil rights, women rights (including right to abortion & voting), universal suffrage, social security, egalitarianism, ecological consciousness, economic rights etc. But there are certain forces in sociopolitical arena that seek to go back to the old ways of regressive societal norms. These forces become stronger when society is in political & economic crisis or instability. When Reaction is accompanied by extra-legal means and armed force (insurrection), it shades into Fascism.

Surely, there always are fringe movements, borderline reactionary forces and regressive politics lurking in the background. But do we have a broadly recognizable tendency of Reaction today? We might have. Let’s start right at the center of the world - USA, the beacon of liberal Democratic order since post world war 2. The situation in America is alarming with arrival of Donald Trump & MAGA movement. The rollback of political and social norms is evident. Political decorum, social harmony, democratic governance, professional management of state, rational political discourse - all these things greatly receded in very short time.

The Democratic tradition in America is facing grave setback as the nation is fallen to the politics of ‘Strongman’ Donald Trump, someone who was charged with nearly 100 criminal counts on various indictments (espionage, insurrection, defrauding America etc), but given broad immunity by Supreme Court of America. This itself is a massive rollback in tradition of rule of law and constitutional norms in a western state. Western world has these Weberian institutions (bureaucracy/civil service) that work with great proficiency like clockwork and operated by competent technocrats. But in America, all this is being dismantled at breakneck speed and without any legality (see what DOGE is doing). Mass firings of civil service (as well as military) and shutting down important institutions is paralyzing the government. That is like making governance of a first world state into that of a third world state overnight.

The scope of Reaction in America is broader and deeper. The big return of Xenophobia, rollback on women rights, rollback of scientific temperament (US healthcare in hands of RFK Jr), rollback on institutional and legal norms etc. Make no mistake that all this is NOT conservatism. Conservative principles is about preserving existing norms and precedence. The rollback of norms is reaction. Think of longstanding and critical legal precedents like ‘Roe vs Wade’ which got repealed. Similarly, the deportation of migrants/refugees without any due process is greatly undermining US justice system. Important institutions like Healthcare system and Pentagon are handed over to delusional and deranged people.

There’s a totality of things in America which indicates that America is domestically becoming into an autocratic Kakistocracy and internationally becoming a rogue state. The power of plutocracy/oligarchy in America is also now on open display. In the past, the plutocracy influenced political government discreetly, staying in the shadows. But now the oligarchs are openly meddling in politics and embracing their power.

The World

America may be the center of world (geopolitically and economically) but it’s not the whole world. There are grave problems in rest of the world as well. The revival of Russian imperialism is another setback to global security architecture. Europe has plunged into war which so far, fortunately, is contained in Ukraine. But what if Ukraine falls (a possibility if Trump regime allows it to happen)? With collapse of soviet union at the end of 20th century, the Russian civil society aspired for Democracy & western style market economy. While the aspirations materialized in some post soviet states, Russia itself went into darkness and anarchy (politically & economically). Now the Russian autocrat (under Potemkin Democracy) has revived ambitions of nostalgic & foolish Eurasian integration project.

The Europe is in better health than the other side of Atlantic but there are worrying signs. The Brexit was major shock to EU - A type of populist insanity implemented in UK. The British politics since then has been chaotic and unstable. The right wing populism is also rising in Europe (parties like AfD). The Europe is also marred by dysfunctional monetary union which is resulting in a dysfunctional political union. My broader point is that there’s a general malaise creeping up in liberal democracies in western world. In America, this malaise has materialized into a full blown crisis and this tragedy may emulate in other parts of the world.

While the world has advanced scientifically and technologically, there’s a peculiar regression in societal consciousness which is also connected to ongoing failures of Democratic societies. While we live in age of information, we are also living in age of falsehoods, mass disinformation and conspiracy theories - a kind of mass psychosis. And this crisis is afflicting not just backward poor nations but very much also modern developed nations. This is among reasons behind rise of Donald Trump and victory of Brexit referendum. There’s a declining trend in intellect and objective thinking at societal level which is making Democracies dysfunctional.

In many parts of the world, including my country India - so called largest democracy of the world - the states are falling to bungling autocrats under the cover of Democracy. I call it Potemkin Democracy. India, like Russia or Turkey, has a formal process of elections. But these states are now autocratic in nature. The values of Democracy - civil rights, secularism, tolerance, freedom of Press, rule of law etc - do not exist in these states. So while superficially, we get an appearance of Democracy in many parts of the developing world, these nations have already receded into dictatorships and/or oligarchical rule.

Case of India is very familiar to me because it’s my home country. A former British colony which post-independence was founded on lofty ideals like secularism, classical democracy, civil rights and vision of natural justice, has however been taken over by fanatics and has become a failed state. But India is not alone. Many post colonial nations have fallen into similar trajectory (see Asia and Africa). The Utopian vision of post colonial states ended with shattered dreams for many as they became failed states. 20th century was the Utopian vision of Independence in colonies as the empires were liquidated. By 21st century, it has become clear that many of these former colonies had no building material for functional democracy.

The religion has been a great hangover for human civilization. While the industrial revolution and economic rationality was a great leap forward for society, a lot of world remained trapped in religious dogmas - think of Africa, Middle East, ‘Sthans’ (populous states of SE Asia). Even in this modern age, there are forces of Reaction driving society back to religious shackles. A case in point is my home country India which is rediscovering itself as ‘Hindu’ nation. But such religious regression is happening in other places too. The evangelical movement and Christian nationalism in America helped propel Trump. The religion is again becoming a fashionable instrument in hands of demagogues. Putin is using it to legitimize his aggression in Ukraine & projecting ‘Moscow - the third Rome’. Erdogan is using Islam to create a sort of a Neo-Ottomon empire. Israel is using Zionism to create greater Israel.

Use of religion as a political instrument is also a facet of Reaction. When a nation doesn’t have objective political ideas for advancement of society, it searches for other means to expand and legitimize itself. 21st century is about solving global problems through scientific and objective thinking. The use of religious ideologies for exercising control over society is a regression in social order.

Economy and Trade

The globalization is coming to an end. The vision of free movement of labor, capital, goods & services as well as globalized vision of Washington consensus is over. Even before Trump arrived in politics, there were cracks and contradictions in globalization. The world was moving towards regionalization. The economic blocs were getting formed. Liberal world (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific) vs illiberal world (BRICS etc) and free trade was planned intrastate between liberal world while industrial policies were being crafted to decouple supply chains from China. But with arrival of Trump, global trade was thrown into chaos overnight.

The capitalism has undergone various transformations. Capitalism emerged by transcending Feudalism. The old classical industrial capitalism was based on self regulating markets. After the great depression, the self regulating capitalism was rebuilt as state regulated capitalism with checks and balances that kept it stable. Then capitalism transformed into Neoliberalism starting in 1970s which culminated into great recession of 2008.

Throughout last century, while the productive power of capitalism expanded, the distributional aspect of national income declined especially in phase of Neoliberalism. Now we are transforming into Technofeudalism whose characteristics are similar to Feudalism of the past, notably the rent seeking tendencies. Much of the financial and technological sector is based on rent seeking and parasitism. Handful of corporations own the cyberspace and have the enormous power to collect ‘cloud rent’ from rest of society. Similarly, the hyper-financialization of economy with exotic instruments (derivatives, Crypto etc) has become a parasite on real productive industrial capitalism. A developed nation like America now lags behind in terms of real urban infrastructure compared to China. The bottom line is that late stage capitalism is in regression in terms of distributional aspects (worldwide) as well as productive powers (in post industrial nations).

What about trade? We don’t know precisely where we are headed as everything is in ebb and flow. At first, we had regionalization policies and creation of trading blocs but now we have full blown trade war started by America unilaterally. Some commentators say that world is going back to Neo-Mercantilism, a doctrine similar to what existed in 17th-18th-19th century where every nation will fend for itself to protect its domestic interests in naively jingoistic way. However, i have a different opinion. What we may have will be retaining of Globalization minus America. While America cuts itself from rest of the world, the globalization will remain intact albeit with realignment and some restructuring.

More important is the question on how we will reorganize society in 21st century. The organization of society on capitalism and laissez faire made mankind subservient to inanimate forces and absurd but sacrosanct principles. While we invented technologies, they were mobilized in society on tenets of capitalism. The capitalist drive was based on exponential growth and unlimited resources. Now we know the ecological boundaries of our planet. In light of these challenges, we have to reorganize capitalism or create some new system that preserves our world as well as to create more equitable distribution of wealth.

20th century was dominated by capitalist consumerism and growth centric economic doctrine but now there are political movements like ‘Degrowth’ which call for reductions in economies. While this idea may appear tolerable to some over-consuming affluent nations which have already modernized. How can Degrowth be justified in developing and backward nations which have not yet climbed the ladder of economic development? As the climate change intensifies, our economic systems will come under increasing pressures for reform. Will they advance or will they slide back in face of challenges? Surely, the capitalist engine still drives innovation. The question will be how differently will we mobilize technology to betterment of society in light of new challenges.

Age of realignment in power structures

The age enlightenment began in Europe. It was foundation to several ideas - concept of modern state, rationality, scientific temperament, industrial revolution and a general will to make society a better place. These ideas made Europe as major driver and director of world affairs for few centuries. Are we in a sunset of age of enlightenment? If we look at regime in America, there indeed are signs of it - the end of rationality, the rise of Kakistocracy etc. But world is not homogeneous. And while there’s stagnation of Europe, maybe the world will be led by new set of ideas which may emerge from elsewhere.

For last few centuries, Europe and America have been the drivers of the world. The 18th and 19th centuries were driven by empires prominently of British and French and their export of capitalist values to much of the world. Then 20th century after world war 2 was driven by American dominated world order (the dollarized world). But 21st century may offer emergence of new power players and realignment. What role will China, Asia Pacific nations and Europe play in new world order? Will America be a significant power player in new order?

The global institutions will also need to be restructured. What will happen to NATO if America becomes a rogue state? France and Germany will then have to take the command of NATO of which some preparations are already underway. The old institutions have no capacity to address current problems. Think of WTO. What can it do in the age of trade wars? Similarly, other institutions are losing their capacity. Think of international courts and United nations. They are helpless spectators to Genocides and aggression. On papers, arrest warrants and UN resolutions exist against people like Bibi & Putin but that no longer deters the actions of these people.

If 20th century was about creating rules based global institutional setup after world war 2, the 21st century, so far, is much about unilateralism. Unilateralism is on display everywhere. Israel exercises it in middle east. US also exercised it especially under Neocons wars of aggression. Currently Trump has unilaterally declared trade war against the world, including its own allies. Russia has unilaterally started war against Ukraine. If such behavior continues on world stage with impunity, it will unravel the international law that existed for last many decades. If system of international rule of law fails, the old nationalism might make a comeback. This will be a dangerous environment for world with too many nations with Nuclear weapons and they trying to implement foreign policy in unilateral ways.

I hope that many things we are seeing right now, especially in America, are blemishes, a blip in overall continuity of affairs and they will soon be corrected. Otherwise, the west and indeed the whole world stares at a new dark age - a wasted century from which we may never recover.

Musical Coda

Stalingrad (1993) soundtrack