Strait of Hormuz is now closed for nearly a month and impact of energy shock is felt by Europeans although not to a great degree so far. Trump has asked NATO States to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by direct military assistance. That means nations like UK & France need to send their battleships to secure the shipping lanes in the gulf. Trump also expresses dismay that NATO States are delaying in sending this military assistance in times of emergency. The point being, can Iran be allowed to bully the world by blocking freedom of seas & navigation? Iran’s side of story is that US & Israel are murdering their political leadership in violation of international law & they have right to retaliate in way they see fit.
But why there is hesitation in NATO to join US in Iran war? To put it another way. Had Biden or Kamala Harris been President in US, Europeans would probably have come to assistance of US in Iran war. Three reasons why Europeans are now hesitating.
1. While Israel has goaded US into attacking Iran, there are no clear objectives of Iran war. Mind you that Europeans were signatories to JCPOA - Nuclear deal that ensured Iran doesn’t obtain Nuclear weapons. Trump tore it apart unilaterally. The publicly stated reasons for attacking Iran are all nonsense as I explained in previous article. What are the real reasons? There are no clear reasons, at least not that would interest Europeans (Ukraine remains priority of Europeans). So why would Europeans take a plunge in middle east quagmire?
2. There is a broader failure of US foreign policy which has forced Europeans to recalibrate their priorities. Recall the Trump’s Donroe doctrine where US wants to prioritize controlling of Western hemisphere. While Donroe doctrine is probably not the official US foreign policy but it has still forced Europeans to think if America will come good on its commitment to safeguard interests of Europe. America’s flip-flops on Ukraine has created serious doubts in minds of Europeans. So much so that they are even considering their own version of NATO. Recall the Trump’s threats to takeover Greenland. Such bellicose rhetoric coming from America has come as a shock to Europeans.
Recall the insults made by Trump
3. Europeans really don’t know who’s in charge in America. Europeans see American politics going into complete failure & paralysis where nothing makes sense. Trump’s mental faculties are failing badly & he’s probably not even aware of what’s happening in middle east. There are variety of manipulators behind Trump who’re trying to accomplish their own goals. Most notably is Zionist faction which has goaded US into attacking Iran. The politics of US is badly broken. The Congress/Senate is not impeaching & removing Trump. The US Supreme Court has given a broad based immunity to Trump. So a demented madman keeps raving his Psychotic midnight tweets. Is this how a serious nation works?
Does it make any sense for Europeans to join bandwagon of Trump regime’s foreign policy in this foggy environment when nobody knows who’s running America?
Europeans supported Trump’s attack on Iran on anticipation that there will be quick regime change. But that has not happened. While top Iranian leadership is killed along with its replacement, the regime still stands and Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Can this status quo go on forever? Will Europeans at some point decide that they have to get embroiled in Iran if for nothing else but to clean up the mess & reopen Strait of Hormuz?
I really hope the rest of the world simply pays in yuan like Iran is asking them to and doesn't give Trump any reason to believe he has support from any nation, NATO or otherwise. He can't stop insulting NATO and most NATO nations are signatories to many more agreements regarding international law than the US (who refuses to commit to any of them).