What drives Trump?
Navigating policy and diplomacy in Trump era
I discuss this subject matter reluctantly because Trump, a deeply disturbed and an unstable man, is a complex puzzle who is difficult to predict and analyze. Dr Bandy Lee, an American psychiatrist along with her colleagues dug into Trump’s psyche on what motivates him (1, 2). A formal diagnosis of Trump’s personality is not possible from afar but it appears that he’s dripping with several malignant psychological disorders. But underlying all the complexities, there exist some simplicity that gives a peek into his thinking.
Trump is a highly vindictive man on a personal level. Much of his rants, rhetoric and policy decisions are based on something that has pissed him off at some point in time. This is a quality that is very opposite to that which is necessary in a national leader. The interests of US state and public comes later, first comes the personal stakes of Donald Trump. Trump is also a delusional person. While a lot of stuff he speaks in public are just falsehoods purely to fool public, there are some falsehoods which he himself genuinely believes in. This is called drinking one’s own Kool-aid or getting high on one’s own supply. It’s difficult to say with certainty on how these delusional beliefs get established in Trump’s mind. But once Trump gets a hang of it, he just can’t let it go.
A critical thing about Trump is concept of ‘Kayfabe’ (1, 2, 3). Trump’s political style can be understood from peculiar world of Professional wrestling which is a kind of Reality TV. Trump being an expert in Reality TV (and also a brief performer in WWE) has learned this (destructive) art of creating artificial reality (this can also be viewed as gaslighting). It’s something like you see in professional wrestling where everything is staged - fights, banter, gimmicks, interviews, personas etc. This is called Kayfabe - an advanced form of Reality TV which on face value looks more real than other conventional forms of TV shows. Kayfabe is an art of controlling and releasing emotions of viewers.
Trump running politics like Kayfabe in White House
Trump’s rhetoric and public statements fit the definition of Kayfabe. He will do banter against Canada, Mexico or Denmark. Or against his foes which he describes as radical left, Fascists, Marxists, Antifa etc. While Kayfabe acts of Donald Trump are to keep his MAGA dupes entertained and American people distracted on fictitious issues, i believe Trump also derives pleasure from these gimmicks. At more elementary level, Trump doesn’t see any difference between a lie or a truth. There are no such things as facts and objective reality in Trump’s mind. Everything is make-belief according to what he wants to project.
Some experts have tried to ascribe ideologies to Trump. But Trump doesn’t really have any ideology. Much of his thinking is shaped by his personal vendettas, delusional beliefs, and importantly his whims and impulses which can be quite erratic and unpredictable. Trump’s position are highly volatile and can change any time. Most of the time, a particular position is taken for convenience of moment at hand. Whatever makes him comfortable and suitable, he takes that position and that position may change tomorrow. Trump doesn’t have any long term strategic thinking on anything. Recall that Trump was once a liberal & a democrat but later turned extreme right and Fascistic purely for his political convenience.
What shapes Trump’s thinking? First thing to look for any position of Trump is to check for his personal vendetta. Example, Trump vehemently attacks renewable energy like Windmills. Background of this is Trump’s personal battle with Scottish government over wind farm near his golf course. Trump’s complaint was that Wind mills will spoil the view of his golf course. Trump today mocks about taking over Panama canal. The background of it is Trump’s legal battles over his brand Hotel project which is subject of corruption and money laundering scandals, and under investigation by Panama’s government (1, 2). Trump’s position on China goes through hot and cold period. Background of it is Trump’s family business dealings in China & their financial interest. It’s speculated that Trump’s 2016 entry into elections was partly motivated due to his humiliation by Obama at a White house dinner (1, 2).
“The Western elites treat Trump as they would treat a tiger with whom they are unwillingly locked in a cage: they try to be friendly to the tiger hoping to avoid being eaten, but they hope that the tiger would soon be taken out of the cage.” - Branko Milanovic
Foreign leaders, especially American allies, have to carefully tread with Trump because you can’t be reasonable with him. Angela Merkel in her biography mentions how Trump sees everything from a transactional point of view and he wishes to be the sole winner in the room. Idea of common interest and shared goals do not fit well with Trump as he sees himself to be the only winner. Foreign adversaries and rivals understand this well about Trump and try to use flattery as a diplomatic strategy. Foreign leaders also understand Kayfabe nature of Trump and do not heed to every absurd public statement of Trump as it’s meant for domestic US politics. Even otherwise, playing tit for tat with Trump’s verbiage is pointless exercise as it may annoy Trump on personal level and create undesired reaction. Best way for American allies is not to get confrontative with him on any issue even though he’s totally wrong.
Another thing about Trump is that on a basic level, he’a a grifter. He can’t do complicated scheming and plots of making money. He does plain and open acts of corruption like quid pro quo policy favors, bribery, intimidation, petty frauds, selling out favors and renting out government positions (1, 2, 3, 4). It’s well known about Trump that all his scandals and illegal acts throughout his business and political career are out in the open and only reason he has escaped accountability is because of thoroughly dysfunctional and corrupted justice system of America.
Challenging Trump’s beliefs is pointless exercise because either he’s deluded about them or he takes them as an attack on his ego which he just can’t tolerate. Attributing rational motives to Trump’s policies and thinking is also pointless. For example, Trump will claim that US will impose Tariffs on imports and China will pay for it. Only remedy for foreign liberal democracies in Trump era is to contain extreme right wing parties and Trump clones in their own domestic politics who’re now emboldened by Trumpism in America and seek to imitate Trump’s success at home. America shows that resilience of Democracy is a misconception and contagion of Trumpian politics can have grave spillover effects on other western nations.