Trump says negotiations with Iran are ongoing to resolve the conflict and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Iran flatly denies it.
Paul Krugman explains three reasons why Trump regime is telling a lie about negotiations but there are two reasons that he didn’t mention. Three reasons Krugman mentions are 1) Trump regime is habitual liar & nothing they say can be trusted upon 2) Iranian regime is in a strong position by closing Strait of Hormuz so it doesn’t have incentive to negotiate 3) Trump regime is doing insider trading because it’s totally corrupted.
Reason 1 and 3 are valid but I am not convinced by the second reasoning. Iranian regime has closed Strait of Hormuz but it’s then also risking a broader retaliation by US & NATO to reopen vital global supply route. Iranian regime is not winning by any means, instead it’s tethering on the edge and fighting for its survival. Now let me explain two additional reasons why Trump’s claim of diplomacy are false.
1) Iran doesn’t have any incentive to negotiate with US given the nature of Trump regime. There’s really no deal possible with Trump regime - an unstable, delusional & deranged man - who cannot be relied on keeping any agreement or treaty. Just recently, Trump blew up all trade agreements and treaties by declaring nonsensical tariffs against the world.
Tariffs was something Trump could TACO (Trump always chickens out) out of by giving waivers and stepping back. Finally American Courts also ruled that tariffs were unconstitutional.
But you can’t take TACO route to exit from a war. When Missiles are flying, leaders of foreign nations are assassinated and conflict has began, you can’t simply step back as in case of tariffs.
So Iran’s back is against the wall and even if it wants to negotiate, there is little sense in relying on Trump’s sensibility and restraint. You make a ‘deal’ today with Trump, he may walk out of it tomorrow or even by end of the day. Trump killed many key leaders of Iranian regime. Even if new leaders makes a deal with Trump, there’s no guarantee that Trump won’t renege on deal and assassinate them the same day.
2) Even if we suppose that Trump genuinely wants to make deal with Iran which is unlikely, it still doesn’t stop the war because there’s another key player in the conflict - Israel. In fact it’s Israel which has goaded Trump regime into taking the plunge in Iran. So for a deal to happen, Iran has to trust in sensibility of Trump as well as Netanyahu regime in Israel and this is almost impossible given the nature of both regimes.
So what’s the solution to this crisis. Three ways. First, Trump regime doubles down and convince NATO to assist in war to achieve a full military victory over Iran. That will open the Strait of Hormuz after regime is fully neutralized. Second, a global effort for diplomacy possibly lead by EU as guarantor to diffuse the situation. Third, a new regime emerging in Iran that makes unconditional surrender to America. First two options look unlikely and also won’t produce a quick result. Recall that last diplomacy on Iran Nuclear deal (JCPOA) took a decade to negotiate. US is still waiting for third possibility that existing regime will crack under terror bombing & assassinations, paving the way for some new puppet regime (like one in Venezuela).
Here, we have two opposite philosophies. Trump is transactional and he worships at the altar of Mammon. To him, it is inconceivable that he can't dangle some kind of incentive in front of the Iranians and get them to sue for peace and re-open the Strait of Hormuz. This would have the added benefit of making him look brilliant. Unfortunately, he is dealing with fanatics and hard liners who are worse than MAGA and will never negotiate anything of the sort for mere monetary or material incentives. They have already demonstrated their disdain and disregard for their own people. This is existential for them, so it is my belief that this won't end any time soon nor will it end well for either side.