Trump's trade war against India

India Gate monument in New Delhi

Indian geopolitical analysts especially the ones aligned with ruling Modi regime are shallow. They, for years, hobnobbed with Trump regime and believed Trump to be favorable for India in international policy. In India, Modi is known as the master of personalized diplomacy - a thing where Modi appears as friend of certain international leaders. Modi invites certain foreign leaders and also go on State visits to foreign nations to carry out personal diplomacy. It’s a useless exercise and hasn’t given any substantive benefit to India. But for domestic population, it projects a spectacular image of Indian PM as a popular global leader.

World is arena ruled by brutal realpolitik and it’s becoming more unstable and cynical in times of Donald Trump. Personal relationships matter little in international policy, international politics is dictated by cynical national interests. First and foremost requisite to earn respect on international stage is for nation to have strength and stability (politically, militarily and economically). No amount of personalized diplomacy can be a substitute for position of respect that is needed to conduct foreign policy.

Those who do not know. Modi was actually hailed as a Trump before Trump by none other than Steve Bannon himself. Both leaders were regarded as similar - autocratic, cultural populists, nationalists, narcissists and relying heavily on propaganda for political legitimacy. There was a certain Chemistry between two leaders and Modi viewed Trump as a personal friend although this perception was mostly one sided. But I must acknowledge that while there indeed are similarities between Trump and Modi, there are also differences. For one, Modi may be incompetent but he is not a certifiably delusional person like Donald Trump. Trump is at whole another level of malignancy.

Now Trump has unleashed naked aggression against India by his trade war with 50% tariffs. This I have explained in a previous article. When someone gets on bad side of Donald Trump, Trump can turn the heat rapidly. Trump is now asking EU to also impose tariffs against India (and China). Reason - India’s purchase of Russian Oil. An idiotic excuse. I don’t expect EU to follow up on Trump’s senseless demands but if they did, this can spell a disaster for India. Interestingly, India has been recently in negotiation process with EU to reach a Free trade Pact. The timing of Trump’s demand for EU to impose tariffs on India also appears to be meant for derailing India’s talks with EU.

I always warned that Trump is not a reliable partner. And it’s not because of differences with him on some complex geopolitical vision or strategic goals. None of that. It’s because Donald Trump is a madman and you cannot deal with him on any degree of rational objective policy understanding. And bludgeoning of India - supposedly a US ally in QUAD - is just a another example that you cannot make a ‘deal’ with Trump on any meaningful terms. You make a deal with him today, tomorrow he will renege by inventing new grievances.

America has since long been pressurizing India over Oil trade. Earlier, India had to suspend Oil purchase from Iran under US pressure. Why? Because Trump suddenly obliterated JCPOA and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. But India adjusted to that by diversifying its oil imports. Now Trump wants India to stop Oil imports from Russia. And where should India compensate for oil deficit? Well, of course from America (1, 2, 3). The unreasonable demands of Trump are ever increasing. And US Oil companies are reaping all the carrots. Out of its own will and also out of American pressure - EU’s LNG imports from America has surged to 55% of total requirements (1, 2). EU has now become dependent on American energy. Even supposing that India further increase oil purchase from US & stop trade with Russia. What is the guarantee that Trump will not come up with new grievances to bully India again?

A friendship gone sour

Digging a little more on Trump and Modi’s strange relationship. Both leaders had one major thing in common. They could never deliver on any substantive achievements in their nations, instead they were regressive and reactionaries. So they relied very much on propaganda and lies for political legitimacy. In America, Donald Trump claimed of making America great again, making America ‘hottest’ country in the world and respected by international community. In India, Modi claimed that he made India into a superpower, a shinning economy which is now respected by the whole world. The propaganda and lies of Modi and Trump were like hall of mirrors. This hall of mirrors is now shattering. Can Modi wake up from disastrous mistakes of his foreign policy?

Trump’s trade war is getting messier for India and many other nations around the world. Maybe SCOTUS will bring back some sanity on US trade policy - it’s probably the only hope to solve the situation. But this is time for India to do introspection on foreign policy and make necessary alignments and adjustments. India is now in turbulent waters without any anchor. China is also on receiving end of American aggression but China has economic strength, political stability and versatile policy leadership that can weather the storm of this trade war and even get into tit-for-tat retaliation with US. India has no such luxury.