Some thoughts on US foreign policy and trade wars

Grand Canyon America

Branko Milanovic wrote an interesting article on American writers and intellectuals.

Milanovic correctly points out that people in middle east had unreasonable expectations with Democracy. I would see this at two level. First is that America and West in general didn’t have a genuine interest in giving western style democracy to middle east nations, Yugoslavia and Russia. Secondly, there is a more fundamental problem with idea of Social Democracy itself. There’s a gross misconception among intellectuals and Civil society of 3rd world nations that answer to all their national problems is western style liberal democracy. Democracy, in itself, is a not a Panacea. Democracy is a political system and a social contract that is successful only under certain requisites. Here i keep going back to Schumpeter’s thesis.

Democracy never worked in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan etc because the building material for Democracy, the requisites for a functional democratic system just weren’t there. America tried to export democracy to these nations but they fell into Civil War and became failed States. Even otherwise, the real motivations for intervening in these nations were actually geopolitical rather than humanitarian mission of exporting western values to these places.

In case of Russia, there was a fair chance that a functional democracy could have been implemented after collapse of Soviet Union. But it required America & West to participate more actively in Russia’s economic and political reconstruction. This meant major financial aid to post Soviet Russia and to accommodate it in common European market. US had no intent in doing so. Russian civil society as well as political elites wanted to be embraced and guided by the West but US abandoned them. A great historical opportunity was wasted. The result was Potemkin Democracy and Gangster Capitalism of Putin. Read the books Triumph of Broken promises by Fritz Bartel and Collapse: The fall of Soviet Union by Vladislav Zubok and this article by Milanovic to understand what I am saying.

Milanovic points out that American writers and thinkers advocate for foreign military interventions and mission to export democracy to authoritarian nations. Why is that? Firstly, many writers and intellectuals are part of media corporations who take their cue from US establishment and plutocratic interests. They write for what they’re paid for. Secondly, the affluent writers and thinkers of America view the world with a universal lens of western political model of Democracy. They measure rest of the world based from this predisposed world view.

Here, let me add some of my own assertion. I have observed that there is a lack of depth in intellectual knowledge of these affluent American writers and thinkers as they are disciples of Classical theory of Democracy. Not only that this flawed intellectual mindset has given them fallacious understanding of the world, it has also made them oblivious to failure of Democracy in their own country. Here is a cruel irony - Democracy is now failing in their own country - America, and they have hard time comprehending that also. While these writers were busy promoting the idea of liberal democracy in the rest of world, the democracy in their own nation plunged into crisis.

But moving on to my point of contention with Milanovic. Milanovic sees Trump as sort of an anti-war politician who is not interested in making new wars. Milanovic also ascribes ideology to Trump - A cross between neo-mercantilism, nationalism and anti-immigration. Here i disagree with him. Trump, in my opinion, has no ideology. Instead, Trump is a mental pathology - a case of severely unstable and erratic person who has no foundational thinking on anything.

Trump is not really anti-war politician. It’s true that Trump doesn’t have a baggage of conventional BLOB or Neocon thinking that was prevalent in long line of past US Presidents. US political leaders have long walked in the footsteps of their predecessors on foreign policy. But for some peculiar reasons, Trump is also not very different from them.

Trump says he wants to takeover Greenland - diplomatically or otherwise - as it’s critical to America’s national interest. Trump also talks about annexing Canada as 51st State - a rhetoric which has greatly turned Canadian public sentiment against America. That’s not really starting new military conflicts although damage done to America’s reputation in western world over this rhetoric is real. Alright, I can also discount these positions of Trump on Canada & Greenland as only publicity stunts and Kayfabe and really without any imperial ambitions.

But let’s look at Trump’s psychology which is as reckless as BLOB and Neocon ideology. BLOB and Neocon ideology is based on belief system that America is hegemon superior and has right to dictate things to rest of the world - through diplomacy as well as through brute force. Now Trump hasn’t started a major military war yet but his ‘my way or the highway’ attitude is reflected in his trade war.

Trump’s trade war against the world is a pinnacle of hegemon arrogance. Only difference is that this arrogance is now a product of delusional thinking and hubris of an individual and not some longstanding State doctrine. Overnight, the international trade is upended on whims of Trump. These are whims of a delusional egotistic person and not some calculated strategy based on an ideology - this is not mercantilism. That’s why Tariffs keep changing every day and every week. Trump thinks he can do that because America is hegemon almighty and rest of the world revolves around it. All countries should approach US doorsteps to ‘make a deal’.

Damage done by Trump’s trade War is also real. I am not talking about inflationary impact of tariffs on American consumers although that’s also bad & unnecessary. But think of nations like Bangladesh and other 3rd world nations which benefited from free trade and globalization. Enormous tariffs will cause a downturn in their economies. Trump is oblivious and indifferent to all of that. (I will write a detailed view also explaining why Trump’s trade war will not bring manufacturing back to America). Recall that US foreign policy hawks and Neocons had no empathy for victims of US sanctions and bombings. In this regard, Trump has similar thinking but in a different context - he has no empathy for victims of his trade war especially the poor countries.

Ok. You can say that Trump has started these trade wars but Trump hasn’t really embarked on military war provocations. But that is also not true. Trump just recently bombed Iran. Trump continues to arm Israel to carry out Genocide in Gaza and destabilize middle east. Trump continues the Neocon line - giving unconditional support to Israel in middle east. Trump has also sanctioned the officials of ICC who were prosecuting Bibi regime for war crimes in Gaza.

Trump’s war provocations goes long back. This goes back to his first term when he unilaterally withdrew from Iran Nuclear deal. Iran Nuclear deal was negotiated through UN security council and included all major superpowers (P5+1 and EU) over a period of more than a decade. This deal was a good starting point to restore peace and stability in middle east. It was junked overnight by Donald Trump in 2018. In 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of Quds force chief Qasem Soleimani. In present day, Trump bombs Iran claiming to stop its Nuclear program. But Iran’s Nuclear program was already under monitoring under JCPOA from which Trump withdrew from unilaterally. Trump also threatens to assassinate Iran’s head of the State.

Also, if Trump is really anti-war, most tangible reflection of it should have been in US defense budget. But US defense spending continue to increase. Space force command created by Trump is expanding weaponization of Space. Much of the previously sanctioned weapons programs also continue under Trump. For example, the Nuclear weapons modernization program which will costs over a trillion dollars over next ten years continues.

Trump has a soft spot for Putin and he has restricted US support of Ukraine in last several months. But Trump really doesn’t have any strategy to end this war. Recall that he said Ukraine war would end in 24 hours if he’s elected President. That never happened because Trump doesn’t understand the ground reality of conflict.

But if you can keep aside Trump’s rhetoric and focus on his actions, a peculiar picture emerges. While on one hand, Trump talks about being a peacemaker in Europe to end Ukraine conflict, on the other hand Trump is acting like a great salesman for US defense industry. Trump is demanding NATO member States to expand contribution to defense spending. NATO member States are also obliging out of Bugaboo of Russia’s aggression. But where does this defense spending goes? Large part of it ends up in pockets of US defense industry which supplies weapon systems to Europe.

Looking at the totality of things in America. I see Trump as an old wine in new bottle - a creation of political and oligarchical machine that created rest of American politicians. Trump’s style of governance is chaotic but core part of old doctrines remain intact. The austerity against American people continues, war provocations also continue, the defense industry continues to expand, the deregulation & privatization of government is accelerating, contempt for international law has increased. In short, the hegemonic arrogance remains the same although currently it’s more exercised in trade war. Class war and contempt for bottom 80%-90% of American society remains the same and implemented more aggressively.

Finally, i would say that while it’s true that inertia of old thinking is deterrence to international cooperation. The temperament of political leader is also very crucial. An incompetent, maniacal and erratic personality of politician can be equally destructive to a country just like an ill-conceived ideology. In case of America, the danger of war and instability has actually increased under Trump regime for two reasons. First, the core structure of political and oligarchical system in America remains the same and actually reinforced under Trump. Second, the command of nation is now in hands of a leader with severely crippled mental pathology.