Road to Iran conflict

I’ve been busy recently with elaborating by thesis on Democracy (most recent article here). Now moving on to current affairs and other areas. Situation in middle east is on my mind since Israel, with enabling of US, started the Genocide in Gaza. See my previous articles here (1, 2, 3).

I like to assert that situation in middle east is not something new and the wars ongoing there have been on drawing boards of Pentagon since more than two decades. The trajectory of wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Lebanon and finally Iran) was planned long ago although possibly not in particular sequence. After collapse of Soviet Union and US remaining the sole superpower standing, the hawks in America got confident that they can do pretty much whatever they want. The original plans for redrawing of middle east had several reasons.

1) To take control of Oil reserves of Iran, Iraq & whatever rest in the middle east under US control. Other gulf States like Kuwait and Saudis were already subservient to US and they would be more so when US takes control over rest of the reserves of region. If dollar diplomacy is the carrot (Gulf nations kept their dollar earnings in western banks), threat of US military would be the stick.

2) Creating a greater Israel. US has been under strong influence of Zionists since long and middle east policy of America is Israel first. When US takes over middle east oil countries and install puppets there, it will also redraw the maps to enlarge Israel by carving out territories of other defeated countries.

Zionist’s plan of greater Israel

3) If you have a hammer, every problem is a nail. US always needed an adversary in post war era. For a long time, it was USSR during the cold war which fed the US military industrial complex. Military industrial complex is a perpetual machine that cannot be shutdown like a spigot. It started with giant production necessary to win world war 2, then the industrial apparatus was diverted to cold war. The Missiles, the Nukes, the conventional weapons, the unconventional weapons, the Jets, the aircraft carriers and all kind of military hardware keep churning out. This giant apparatus could not be shut down by flip of switch. So why not use it for war on terror and new wars in middle east?

General Clark explains middle east policy after 9/11

Now plans for middle east wars were prepared & ready to go. But how can such a proactive (aggressive) war policy be initiated without any actual threats. Then suddenly 9/11 happened. This put everything in motion.

Let me recap what happened in 21st century that began with 9/11 attacks.

The trajectory of middle east war plans got altered due to several reasons. First, US got stuck in Iraq after 2003 when it believed that it would be ‘mission accomplished’ in matter of days. Isn’t it interesting thing how nations who start the war believe that war would be over in a matter of days? Anyway, US got stuck in Iraq quagmire and then came the great recession. This put stumbling blocks in US & Israel’s plans for middle east.

But plans didn’t change much even when governments changed in Washington DC. The US backed insurgencies in Libya & Syria got the ball rolling again in 2011 without putting boots on the ground. This time, the drone warfare, Islamic terrorists (Mujahideen types) and PMCs were well utilized to substitute boots on the ground and Gaddafi was neutralized in Libya. But then US hit a snag once again due to return of Russia as a geopolitical player. This time Russia took the initiative in Ukraine by successfully annexing Crimea and starting insurgency in Eastern Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russia started backing Syria in middle east. This strengthened the Axis of resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah & their supported rebels in middle east) that became a formidable force in middle east putting Israel & US on back foot for a while.

Iran Nuclear deal signed in 2015 after decade of negotiation

In mid 2010s, US had a moment of lucidity and started rethinking its middle east policy. What is the strategic purpose of redrawing middle east maps in 21st century? What is the strategic gain of US in creating greater Israel in middle east? With public opinion turning against foreign interventions, weakening of US economy due to GFC and trillions of losses in wars with little benefit out of it, this was a time when US thought of re-calibrating its middle east priorities. The indication of this was Iran Nuclear Deal which put US squarely against Israel. And 2017 was the high point of post Soviet Russia’s foreign policy. Crimea was successfully integrated into Russia & eastern front of Ukraine insurgency was stabilized (more or less), Assad regime was stabilized in Syria, Axis of Resistance was strong.

US was thrown into turmoil with arrival of erratic & unstable Donald Trump in white house. But it turned out that Trump would became an instrument of Israel and would go back to hawkish US policy towards middle east. Trump tore up Iran Nuclear deal which took over a decade to negotiate and Europeans were just mute spectators. Trump also started provocations in middle east like Assassination of IRGC Quds chief Qasem Soleimani. But suddenly came the Covid-19 pandemic and conflicts got frozen for a while in middle east and Europe.

Now let’s pause for a minute and understand the utter foolishness of Putin (starting in 2022) and America (starting in 2023-24). Russia never had the capacity to militarily takeover Ukraine in one go. The so called special military operation - a 3 day war - was a delusional plan. Secondly, NATO was losing relevance after collapse of USSR and US desperately needed a new adversary to feed/justify its enormous military industrial complex. It was Putin who revived the purpose of NATO’s existence by starting a war in Europe.

Ukraine war was worse than a crime; it was a blunder. So in 2022, Russia made the great blunder. It was a terrible miscalculation that war - special military operation - would be finished in matter of days. Butterfly flaps its wing in Europe and there will be hurricane in middle east in couple of years. You see, Russia had been the invisible backbone of Axis of resistance for many years. US & Israel had a restrained military policy in middle east as long as Russia was strong. But Ukraine war depleted and degraded Russia at an astonishing speed. Russia burned down its human resources and military hardware in deadly Ukraine conflict in very short time leaving Axis of resistance to be outflanked by US & Israel in middle east.

Coming back to middle east. With Russia - the invisible backbone of Axis of resistance in middle east - greatly weakened, US & Israel took out their plans from cold storage to reshape middle east. But what’s the strategic value of these 20+ year old plans in 2023? By 2023, the renewable energy boom was already in full swing. Oil is no longer a lucrative asset as once it used to be.

US obsession with oil since last 30+ years doesn’t seem to end even when Oil no longer has the strategic value it once did. The rapidly falling costs of renewable and storage batteries is displacing fossil fuel energy.

And what’s the purpose of creating greater Israel? Just to keep Bibi Netanyahu out of prison who otherwise would be staring prison? If contemporary history has taught us anything, it’s the fact that creating new mini States by redrawing national boundaries only destabilizes the region, create ethnic conflicts that last till eternity. But US didn’t learn the lesson. All the objectives of reshaping middle east were unsound (foolish) to begin with and re-adopting them 20+ years later was just insanity.

Today western pundits blame Trump for starting Iran war but Iran conflict is a part of broader middle east designs formulated long before Trump. After stumbling and slowing down for a decade (2011-2020), the plans were reinvigorated by terror attack in Israel (famously dubbed as second 9/11). It’s interesting that wars are preceded by a grand spectacle of terror attack (draw your own conclusion). Then started Genocide in Gaza, followed by Assassination of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, followed by overthrow of Assad in Syria and finally the attack on Iran. All that happened just in matter of 28 months or so. Russia quietly liquidated its position in middle east to focus on regional power politics. Assad regime which survived for 13 years of intense insurgency fell in matter of 13 days, such was the rapid collapse of Axis of resistance without Russian backbone.

There is a three track reasoning for starting war on Iran. First is official line which is complete bunk - that US wants to be humanitarian to help Democracy in Iran and Israel trying to stop Iran from building a nuke (which is always two weeks away). This is ludicrous and worth nothing to comment upon. The second reasoning is what I mentioned in beginning of this article - the real objectives for attacking Iran essentially means creating a greater Israel. Oil reserves are almost worthless now unless you suffer from Psychosis that Windmills are killing Whales and Solar energy is a scam.

But there is a third reason which some experts are trying to come up with which is equally ludicrous as the first reasoning. It’s basically a moral war of Liberal world order vs illiberal world order. It’s the alliance of liberal nations (US, EU, Israel) waging a righteous war against illiberal nations (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Axis of resistance etc) in struggle for political and moral values of the world. There is a new sun waiting on the horizon once illiberal world order is defeated. Now let’s debunk this reasoning.

First of all liberal world order is more like Wild West - a state of mind of romanticists who myopically see world from a binary viewpoint. Even if liberal world order is some existing panacea, the threat to liberalism is not really from outside but from within. The grave internal contradictions of its Democracy and Capitalism - of which symptoms are modern Republican party, MAGA movement, bankruptcy of British politics across the spectrum, Brexit, Tech Bros & their Technofeudalism, Out of control Oligarchy, Crypto madness, skyrocketing inequalities, sinking institutions and stagnating cities of post-industrial America, affordability crisis, opioid crisis, rise of anti-Science etc - are the real threat to liberal world order.

A war in middle east won’t solve above mentioned problems, it will only suppress these problems & aggravate them underneath which will continue to eat the foundations of liberalism. War may distract people’s attention from Epstein files, prolong the political career of Bibi Netanyahu & other Zionists and generate more profits for defense industry. But it won’t solve any fundamental problems of America domestically or in terms of foreign policy. US bellicosity, foolhardy adventures and my way or the highway attitude has already eroded a lot of credibility of America on world stage.

Something more to be said about so called illiberal world order - a term actually coined by BLOB. US policy was probably coming to senses in mid 2010s. Why make enemies when you can make allies? Forget about redrawing maps of middle east and shift away from Israel first policy in that region. Let Iran be re-integrated into global economy. A non-Nuclear Iran - guaranteed by JCPOA - will let US focus on other global priorities instead of endless obsession with middle east. Today pundits complain that Iran supplied Drones to Russia. But isn’t it America’s fault that it created a needless enemy out of Iran, cornered it and walked back on all agreements with it. US could’ve easily peeled off Iran away from Russia (& China) by abandoning foolish Israel first policy in middle east. There was a time when a much broader shift was made in US policy when it peeled off China from USSR.

Today Canada is planning to build closer ties with China. EU is softening to China. Is it fault of Canada? America is creating enemies out of allies under Trump but problem is not limited to Trump. American allies tolerate it as much as they can out of exigencies to stay under US protective umbrella. In major part of first two decades of 21st century, America and Israel destabilized middle east, as a result millions of refugees turned up at EU’s doorstep which created variety of political & social problems for Europe. Technology companies of America are interfering in politics of EU nations on a greater scale than Kremlin. Europe was worried about its energy dependence on Russia, now it has become energy dependent on US which comes with its own headaches.

Today, Europeans support US & Israeli’s attack on Iran but that support is not guaranteed if war goes bad. Europeans can support America’s aggression if there’s a quick victory in Iran (like overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela). If not, the rift between America and Europe will widen.

The attack on Iran

I discussed the background which lead to current Iran conflict. Now let’s look at conflict which started several days ago. Make no mistake. It has nothing to do with affection for humanitarianism or democracy in Iran. It has nothing to with Iran about to get Nuclear weapon (you’ve been hearing this since 25 years or so) or any imminent threat to America’s interests.

The current strategy to neutralize Iranian regime is different from traditional US attack in middle east - Putting tens of thousands of boots on the ground to secure the entire country as it tried to do in Iraq. But now there really is no clearly defined strategy. US is tying up piecemeal strategies and plans with duct tape and glue to produce something. A part of plan is simple. No boots on the ground for now. Just assassinate the top leadership of Iran and destroy their critical infrastructure.

US at first hoped that when it starts the attack on Iran and assassinate key leaders, some new regime will appear magically, possibly through infighting between existing factions in regime. But that didn’t happen. Then US & Israel continued the killing of Iranian regime bigwigs and their replacements. This sustained terror attack against regime may bring it to its knees but so far it hasn’t. US & Israel is escalating further by terror bombings and war crimes like destroying the energy and water infrastructure. But will it force Iranian regime into surrender? There’s also a possibility that US will finally put at least some boots on the ground to bring down the regime. I am not sure how it will do that.

India & other third world nations are facing shortage of Cooking gas (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) due to Iran war

The shutdown of Strait of Hormuz is the Achilles' heel which is creating problems. Since nearly 20% of oil (& other things like fertilizers etc) transit through this area, Iran’s one effective retaliation is to shutdown this trading route. But this will create more problems for third world nations and Europe rather than for America and Israel because it’s the third world which is finding it hard to foot the bill and arrange alternative supplies (like my country India which is now facing shortage of cooking gas). For Europe & America, the problem is hike in price of gas which they can tolerate for some time. The political ramifications of $5/gallon gas in America is somewhat exaggerated. But problem for third world is more acute as they just won’t find enough supply if the Strait of Hormuz remain shut for longer.

How things can go bad in middle east?

The usual attention of experts is on Oil prices due to closure of Strait of Hormuz and a long term quagmire in Iran. This is certainly a short and medium term risk. But there are also long term risks. Western observers claim that non-Democratic rule of Iranian regime had no legitimacy and won’t survive the conflict. May be so. But if legitimacy is critical part of discussion, then western observers should recall that almost no regime in middle east has any legitimacy and contains suppressed ethnic problems. Most of them are dictatorships and hardline Islamists (Saudi Arabia is prime example) where variety of minorities are suppressed.

Even if you dispose current Iranian regime which is a big if, what will come after? A new regime? Or a new quagmire that will open the Pandora box of instability and ethnic tensions in middle east? Today Iran is targeting US interests in middle east (Kuwait, UAE etc) which is creating headache for these nations. But real headache will be home grown insurgencies that may emerge in these nations due to ethnic tensions. Most of these middle east nations are thoroughly corrupted, their economies running on slave labor immigrants and cities built for accumulation of oligarchical wealth (Dubai is prime example). What kind of legitimacy they have?

What about greater Israel and redrawing of maps in middle east? Even if Iran is defeated, will Arab nations accept the new borders? All the ingredients of long term instability and ethnic conflicts exist in middle east. What will be impact of this instability on Europe? Will there be another migrant crisis EU has to bear as happened in last decade?

Trump doesn’t have a particular interest in war on Iran. His mental faculties are failing badly and he takes decisions as guided by his manipulators who’re also moronic & malignant. Trump started war with Iran without considering the consequences. War is not something you can TACO out of. When Missiles are flying and foreign leaders are assassinated, and importantly if war starts going bad, you can’t take the TACO route to exit the war.

There’s also a domestic threat of dictatorship. While some western observers fear that Iran’s retaliation on US soil will help Trump’s falling ratings & create a rally around effect, another possibility that’s ignored by experts is that Trump regime may itself create a false flag terror attack on American soil to consolidate power, subvert elections and extend its rule.

Iran conflict may turn out to be a military blunder just like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.