More on trade wars and tariffs crisis

Negotiating with Trump regime is pointless

Scenic view Canada

Krugman points out that there’s no point in negotiations on tariffs with Trump regime because there’s really nothing to negotiate. For example, EU has not imposed great trade barriers against America as Trump alleges. So what can EU do to satisfy Trump? Same is the story with Canada where Trump has invented the ‘Fentanyl issue’ to create a fictional narrative. Trump’s entire pretext of ‘national emergency’ is frivolous - perhaps a creation of delusional mind. So Trump is attacking the world with a Gatlin Gun of rapid fire Tariffs without any reason and without concern to consequences. So what can EU do? Nothing except to retaliate.

Trump is delusional, inflexible, cruel and remorseless with my way or the highway thinking. Remind you of anyone similar? Think of Hitler pre World War 2. There was no point in negotiating with Hitler but Chamberlain thought it was possible. No matter how much concessions you make to Hitler, he will agitate for more and more. They gave Sudetenland to Germany in hope that it will be ‘peace in our times’. This was referred as Appeasement of Hitler. America under FDR was hesitant of military intervention in Europe so he made a personal appeal to Hitler to prevent war. This was Hitler’s response.

There could never be any peace deal with someone like Hitler. The World War 2 broke out and Germany had to be militarily defeated. Only that brought peace in Europe.

Back to present times. Canada tried to give concessions to Trump, in hope to stop his tariffs aggression. Fentanyl was never an issue on Canadian border but Canada appointed a ‘Fentanyl czar’ to satisfy Trump. Canada also withdrew digital services tax in hope to reach ‘a deal’ with Trump. I would say that this actually emboldened Trump regime. I also don’t understand why and how some countries are negotiating with Trump regime to make deal with America. Japan was one of the earliest country to start trade negotiation with Trump. Negotiation didn’t reach anywhere. TACO narrative was our current day analogy to peace in our times. People thought that Trump will chicken out, cool down and walk away from tariff obsession. It was a wishful thinking.

Japanese delegation at While House in April

Think of South Korea. It already has a Free Trade agreement with US but Trump’s still threatening them with tariffs. Think of Brazil where Trump is imposing tariffs because of prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro who launched a failed coup after losing Brazilian elections (it was actually an imitation of Jan 6). Trump says that any countries who try to get closer to BRICS will also be retaliated with more tariffs. But India, a member of BRICS, is also a Strategic partner of US in QUAD alliance which also includes Australia and Japan.

There’s no logic behind Trump’s tariff tantrums. So there’s no point in negotiating with Trump. You give Trump concessions (real or superficial) and you may calm him down for few weeks or months if you are lucky. But then he may come back and start quarreling again after some time. Another thing to know about Trump is that he’s a great liar and can’t be relied upon to keep his word. This is not just his Machiavellian trait but actually a mental pathology of Trump (Psychopathy? - inadequately motivated antisocial behavior).

So what is the solution to this? America has upended the world trade and a permanent solution to this crisis is not clearly visible at this time but there are some remedies that countries should take. This, I have already suggested in previous articles (1, 2). Stop appeasing Trump and giving him concessions. Canada should go forward with its digital tax policy. It’s also a matter of sovereignty. Will other countries allow America to dictate & interfere in their national policies? Should Brazil give immunity and pardon to former President Jair Bolsonaro?

So retaliate against US in this trade war and do it like you mean it. Learn from Chinese. Also recall that in World War 2 (back when US was a good guy), US allied with Soviets (who were bad guys) to defeat the greater evil - the Nazis. Yes, i am making naive comparisons. But picture is similar. EU-Canada-China should coordinate response strategy collectively and hit Trump regime hard.

Trump is delusional. He thinks he’s a rooster who controls the sun. He thinks the world revolves around US and everyone should grovel at White House doorsteps for a ‘deal’. The more you appease Trump, the more you will embolden him. So make no deal with Trump and give him retaliatory tariffs instead.

Tit for tat tariffs in this mindless trade war started by Trump will be a major drag on global economy but Trump hasn’t left much choice. There are still two alternatives that gives easy way out of this precarious situation. First, the appeals court can deliver the rightful judgement that Trump’s tariffs are illegal, arbitrary and unconstitutional. Hopefully, this will restrain Trump although the case may go up to the Supreme Court.

Second, there is a need for regime change in America. This chaotic and destructive regime should be deposed. I don’t see an easy path to it right now as Trump has already survived two impeachments and also holds broad immunity. But Trump’s policies are so bad that they will turn public opinion strongly against him. Come November next year, Republicans may lose at least one house of Congress and 3rd impeachment of Trump can begin. With economy in paralysis and public sentiment strongly against him, maybe he will be convicted this time. But as i said, it’s a lot of wishful thinking.