Paul Krugman recently had interesting conversation with Joey Politano on situation with daily changing tariff policy and economic uncertainty. Joey is an independent analyst who has good insight on economic issues and quantifies many types of economic data in nice charts. In discussion, Paul & Joey contemplated on the possible endgame to Trumpian chaos. Joey was pessimistic that this may continue for a while as there are no checks and balances against Trump. An overwhelming Congressional resistance is needed to tame Trump but that’s not a possibility in foreseeable future.
Now on to my thesis. Trump is making America into a rogue state, a pariah due his economic aggression against the world including against the closest allies of America. And damage done by Trump regime is not limited to economic & trade policies. The foreign policy blunders are also piling up and NATO states are rethinking the future role of America in the alliance. How can America restore its credibility?
Undoubtedly, Trump needs to be deposed at the earliest to bring normalcy in America but there are many hurdles. The impeachment process is very difficult. Trump has already survived it twice. The bigger problem is that America is no longer a nation with ‘rule of law’. The epitome of it is broad based immunity granted to Trump by US Supreme court. In fact, this immunity is a major cause behind outrageous policies of Trump regime. So deposing of Trump is not enough, the institutional legitimacy of America also needs to be restored.
It’s not well recognized but the broad immunity granted to Trump by American Supreme Court is actually destabilizing America not just domestically but internationally. Think of it. A foreign democratic government is now aware of the fact that American Presidency has become quasi-dictatorship. Since the US President is not bound by any domestic restraints of legal accountability mechanism, the US President can pursue policies without any qualms. US policies are becoming more bellicose and unpredictable. This is antithesis of western liberal order that has existed since long and which had been the basis of special partnership between US and its closest allies (5 eyes nations, Europe etc). Foreign nations strive for foreign relations & partnerships based on predictability and mutual restraints.
Another thing that is needed in ‘cleaning up’ process is at least some curtailing of the executive powers of American Presidency. These executive powers were not a problem before but with thorough abuse of executive authority, Trump has maligned the whole concept of executive power. The Presidents in past used executive powers with responsibility & restraint - even the worst of the Presidents had some sense of restraint unlike Donald Trump.
President’s unilateral authority to practically declare a trade war against the world is gross abuse of executive authority. In fact, the world needs to be convinced that America will not abuse its power arbitrarily. In terms of economy, a robust process of declaring a ‘national emergency’ is needed which should include congressional deliberation and central bank’s technocratic opinion on given situation. Just declaring ‘national emergency’ on farcical premise (fentanyl, size of trade deficit etc) can plunge America into unnecessary trade wars.
Another way by which America’s credibility can be restored is through a Tectonic shift in American politics. A change so big in length and depth that restores faith of the world in liberal America democracy. This can happen with a landslide victory of Democratic Party in 2026 congressional elections and 2028 Presidential elections. American electorate resoundingly disposing Trumpism into garbage bin of political history. For that, new faces in American politics need to appear. Old Dems faces like Clintons, Schumer, Pelosi or Obama don’t make the cut on this.
Sea change in Politics will also have to translate into sea changes in American institutions. The speed at which Trump is destroying Weberian institutions of America, they will be hollowed out in next 4 years. Hence, an intensive repair will be needed to bring these institutions back to life and clean them up from Trump’s political appointees.
This is a long process and so far i am not even foreseeing the starting point. Only consolation right now is that the public opinion is shifting against Trump regime and hopefully this trend will only accelerate with time.
Musical Coda
In The Air Tonight - Phil Collins (Acoustic Cover by Sierra Eagleson)
You’re not wrong. Unfortunately, it’s gonna be a while, though