Bombing of Iran’s State news TV building
Read my previous articles here (1, 2, 3).
The Israel-Iran war and Russia-Ukraine war are not separate theaters. They are connected in a way. This is part of conflict between ‘Liberal world order’ vs ‘Illiberal world order’. This I’ve explained in previous article. On side of liberal world bloc, you have US and NATO states, Asia pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc), Ukraine, Israel and Arab satellites of America (Egypt, Jordan etc). On side of illiberal bloc, you have Russia, China, Syria (now fallen), North Korea, Iran, Hezbollah (now fallen), Belarus, Yemen etc. And in between there are also power players who have their own agenda and who are not rigidly connected to either power blocs. These are nations like Turkey and India.
The conflicts are not only military but also economic. While Trump’s bellicose trade policy is targeting China heavily but it’s also doing it to the entire world including allies. This is an aberration. The original industrial policy of America, under Biden administration, was very specifically targeting China. Biden administration was also pressurizing EU and Asia Pacific (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan etc) to restrict advanced tech trade (Chips and Chip making equipment) with China.
Note that I’ve not invented the terminology of ‘Liberal world’ vs ‘Illiberal world’. This terminology is invented by US foreign policy thinkers who see the world from this binary scope.
Regarding Iran, what we are seeing is total collapse of ‘Axis of resistance’. First, the fall Hezbollah, then fall of Syria and now will be the last Domino to fall - Iran. Russia was invisible backbone of ‘Axis of resistance’. Waging war on Ukraine was worse than a crime, it was a blunder. Russia ruined itself militarily, economically and demographically by foolishly starting 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Here i point out that i am not talking about Ukraine war from perspective of any morality or international law. I am talking about it from purely strategic point of view. As long as you are the victor, international law can be side stepped. Ukraine war was unwinnable as many analysts had warned Putin so Russia should’ve never started it. But Putin made the blunder.
With Russia weakening from military defeats in Ukraine, it quietly withdrew from Syria and Assad regime fell in a matter of days. By that time, Hezbollah’s top leadership had already been assassinated by Israel by string of terror attacks and bombings. It was obvious that Iran was the last domino remaining and it was only a matter of time when regime change plans are implemented in Iran. How regime change comes is a matter of options. Killing top leadership of Iran and installing a puppet regime like the one recently installed in Syria or a more intense military conflict to destroy Iran.
Regime change in Iran also means the end of China’s Belt & Road’s entry into middle east and Europe (1, 2). By the way, US and Europe can only criticize China’s belt and road as an imperial project but can never offer any alternative to it by building multi-national, cross-border infrastructure in the world and especially developing nations.
Don’t fall for usual rhetoric about reasons to attack Iran. Attack on Iran has nothing to do with their Nuclear program. Attack on Iran is purely motivated by a golden opportunity. With Russia badly tied up in Ukraine, demise of Hezbollah in Lebanon and fall of Assad regime in Syria, Iran is now isolated and this is a perfect opportunity to take it out.
Over last 2 years, many of the top leadership of Iran has already been assassinated. Israel has achieved escalation dominance like never before and they openly talk about assassinating Iran’s head of the State. Israel has cultivated a powerful spy network in Iran and middle east which has even infiltrated the highest circles of Iranian regime (1, 2). Apart from external military front, Iranian regime is also facing internal threats to its rule. Iran has no substantive way to retaliate.
The binary view of liberal vs illiberal world held by many western foreign policy thinkers is a contradiction. Many of the allies of US are actually dictators and barbarians. There’s no democracy in middle east and regime change in Iran won’t bring any western style democracy. Look at Syria. US installed a terrorist killer - Al Qaeda in a suit - to rule Syria. Libya and Iraq after fall of dictatorships fell into chaos. No real democracy emerged from heaps of destruction.
US tried to rehabilitate Iran and repair relationship with it. This was a better path for stability in middle east. Recall the Iran Nuclear deal during Obama-Kerry era and passed by UN security council. A problem with US is that Israel has a veto over its middle east policy. Israel always rejected Iran nuclear deal. After madman Trump won the 2016 elections, he unilaterally tore up the Iran Nuclear accord and reimposed the sanctions.
After Biden won elections in 2020, no effort was made to restore the Nuclear accord. Biden’s middle east policy was a disaster …. or a success …. depending on how you look at it. Biden was a mute spectator to Gaza genocide, allowed Israel to run wild by giving full diplomatic support to its aggression in Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. And in the final days, Biden approved regime change in Syria. Though I doubt Biden was even in charge at this point. With rapidly failing health, I don’t see how Biden was making any decisions in 2024.
On one hand, Biden’s middle east policy may be seen as a failure which created instability in middle east. But from different perspective, it was also a success as US destroyed long standing middle east adversaries. Here is another problem with making ‘deals’ with US. You can’t expect them to hold up and especially in middle east where Israel holds the veto. Iran made the same mistake like Saddam in Iraq - Abandoning Nuclear weapons program thinking that US & EU will leave it alone after that. Case with Iran was worse as it reached ‘5+1’ accord with UN backing and then US backed out of it.
A lesson for nations who want to have a degree of independent foreign policy is that they should keep Nuclear weapons to protect their sovereignty. The EU is also hypocritical on foreign policy. After US backed out of Iran Nuclear accord, EU never made a serious initiative to make a bilateral agreement with Iran. EU leaders also support Israeli aggression in middle east by giving diplomatic and military support to Bibi. Domestically, Bibi is an indicted criminal in Israel and eternal war is his ticket to stay in power and avoid jail. And Bibi’s war plans are supported by US and Israel.
With international climate deteriorating, other nations are also flexing their muscles. Turkey has carved out a piece of Syria. Israel has increased its aggression across middle east. In South East Asia, India made a test run to check Pakistan’s defenses. A bigger war between India and Pakistan in near future is a possibility. Here, Israel is backing India and Turkey is backing Pakistan.
I don’t see rationals actor on world stage. Nothing more needs to be said about Bibi & Israel. US is under the Kakistocracy of Trump regime which has declared Trade war against the world. Delusional Trump promised to end Ukraine war in 24 hours but there’s no progress. Putin is trapped in his delusions that he can somehow come out on top in some negotiated settlement with Ukraine. EU thinks that it is now the moral superior to lead foreign policy of the ‘west’ but in middle east, EU is hypocritically enabling a new war. Turkey, India, Pakistan are waiting for openings to demonstrate their power.
All nations and superpowers wanna keep the conflicts below Nuclear threshold. Can they? And those nations who don’t have Nukes and who want to be sovereign can see the risks in this world.
Musical Coda
Nick Cave & Warren Ellis - "Mountain Lion Mean" (Hell or High Water OST)